On 21 February 2025, the Center for International and Security Affairs (ISAC Fund) hosted a public presentation of its latest study titled “Serbia: Risks of Abandoning the Pro-European Course.” The event took place in [insert location if known], gathering stakeholders from academia, civil society, and the diplomatic community.
The study was authored by Dr. Marko Savković, Senior Advisor at ISAC Fund, who presented the key findings and methodology. Commentary was provided by Dr. Milan Igrutinović, Deputy Director of the Institute for European Studies, offering a critical perspective on the implications of the study. The discussion was moderated by Dr. Igor Novaković, Senior Associate at ISAC Fund.
Study Overview
The research employed the scenario-building method, a strategic foresight tool used to explore possible future developments based on current trends and expert insights. Over several months, the ISAC Fund team engaged with dozens of stakeholders from the fields of politics, business, and culture. The project was supported by the Canadian Fund for Local Initiatives (CFLI).
Three potential scenarios for Serbia’s foreign policy trajectory were outlined:
- Multi-vector Foreign Policy – A continuation of balancing between East and West.
- Abandoning the European Course – A shift away from EU integration, with significant political and economic risks.
- Black Swan Scenario – An unpredictable, disruptive event that could drastically alter Serbia’s strategic orientation.
Each scenario was assessed in terms of likelihood, potential impact, and policy implications.
Purpose and Next Steps
The primary goal of the study is to stimulate informed public debate and encourage strategic dialogue among policymakers, civil society, and international partners. ISAC Fund plans to continue developing these scenarios and organizing discussions with community representatives across Serbia.
The full study is available for download at the following link.