Project  Monitoring Russia - Serbian Relations
Third Roundtable
Energy in Southeast Europe
Belgrade, 19 October 2009

Participants:

•   Dr Pavel Baev, Norway, Professor – Researcher, International Peace Research Institute (PRIO), Oslo, Norway
•   Dr Andreas Deak, Hungary, Central European University, Center for the EU Enlargement tudies;
•   Dr Igor Tomberg, Russia, Head of Research Centre of Energy and Transport, The Institute for Eastern Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences;
•   Nataša Hroneska, Macedonia, Researcher, Analitica Thinking Laboratory, Skopje
•   Aleksandar Kovačević, Serbia, Energy Advisor, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Senior Visiting Researcher;

Introduction by Dr Dušan Reljić, Senior Researcher, German Institute for International and Security Affairs – SWP

Moderator:  Milan Simurdić, Serbia, President, Forum for  International Relations of the European Movement in Serbia, former Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Serbia and Montenegro to Croatia

TOPICS

• Oil and gas policy, the Cooperation between Southeast Europe and Russia in Securing a Sustainable Energy Security, and
• Energy Security in South-eastern Europe - a Critical Point for Serbia and for the Countries in the Region;

Opening Žarko Petrović, ISAC Fund
Presentation of the two themes of the Round Table:

Introduction

Moderator
Milan Simurdić
Introduction
Pavel Baev (English)
About gas as a unique energy efficient and also uniquely politicized energy source. The four options for gas construction (Ukrainian options, South Stream, Nabucco - as non-Russian gas and the option of the Blue Stream II). Uncertainties that follow the discussions on the construction and implementation of these options.

Andraš Deak (English)
About what is energy policy in the Balkans and Europe. Also about a lack of understanding of what is the meaning of the term energy policy. About how energy policy especially in the Balkans is very politicized. The discussion about which gas pipeline is the most realistic option and why.
Igor Tomberg (English)
The situation with Russian gas, general insight into the Russian energy policy before and after the economic crisis that affected the decrease in demand for Russian gas from Western Europe. About the problem of "take or pay" contracts. A new strategy for Russia's energy policy, which is awaiting approval of the Russian government
Comments and questions related to the previous presentations.

Nataša Hroneska (English)
The energy crisis facing the countries in Southeastern Europe, about Macedonia and Kosovo that are not gasified or transit countries, but use large quantities of natural gas.

Igor Tomberg (English)
Indicates that despite all the signed contracts and all propaganda related to this visit, we are still at same position because of the prices situation. Prices are less in the world. Mr. Tomberg also discusses how it will be difficult to agree about the prices. Also there is no real source of gas near the Chinese border. Mr. Tomberg indicates that if a project over gas line in Turkmenistan is established, Russian gas to China will not be required.

Dragan Štavljanin
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty in Prague
Mr. Štavljanin speaks about using energy as a political weapon which meets the EU and Russia in the energy sense, especially when it comes to gas. Projects "Nabucco", "White Stream", and "Interconnector” are mentioned. Mr. Štavljanin mentions problems in Russia, primarily in Gazprom. The value of Gazprom declines and its sources of gas are slowly depleting.

Pavel Baev (English)
Mr. Beav said that the fact that Europe is "green" (has energy) makes it uncompetitive. As for Iran and Iraq, Mr. Baev said that Iran is in a better situation.

Moderator Milan Simurdić
He pointed out the way that the discussion on the second panel will be guided and let Mrs. Hroneska take floor.

Nataša Hroneska (English)
The current situation in the field of energy supply, the main energy sources, challenges in the field of energy security and possible scenarios for the consolidation of the energy situation in Macedonia. The lack of investment in energy sectors and energy vulnerability in Macedonia.

Moderator Milan Simurdić
Gas as a sensitive geopolitical goods effected by political influences. The importance of the monopoly for the transit of gas and crucial energy influence in the post-Soviet space, the so-called "close neighbourhood". The competition between the EU and Russian energy policy on the sources of gas, as well as in the Balkans.
Aleksandar Kovačević
About energy policy in the South-eastern Europe region. On the following issues: the ability of defining the energy policy, energy market regulation, energy security, energy efficiency, environment, energy poverty, energy trading, oil and gas transportation through the territory of SEE countries. Energy policies of these countries, dating from the '70s of the last century, are old and insufficiently effective. They were focused on the collection of rent on natural good transit annuities. There is a large proportion of lignite use, and this is production of low productivity and competitiveness. Mr. Kovačević advocated for the strengthening of regional energy cooperation.

Dušan Reljić
The question of the connection between the gas prices with the outbreak of the last major energy crisis.

Igor Tomberg (English)
About what may be the international influence on the energy situation in the SEE region, implying that the impact may not always be positive (for example the role of western countries in solving the last energy crisis in Ukraine).

Đuro Otašević, Attorney at Law
Asked about the issues related to the legal aspects of the Energy Arrangement between Russia and Serbia. He pointed out that there are discrepancies in the agreements that are concluded within the Arrangement with the Serbian legal system.

Dušan Reljić
Asked whether Serbian sale of NIS to Russia was a good idea?

Milan Simurdić comment - it is not clear why the percentage in NIS sale was 51%:49%.

Žarko Petrovic, Project Director „Monitoring Russia Serbia Relations“ and
Volodimir Fesenko, analyst „Penta“, Kiev, Ukraine.

Topic One:
Contemporary Russia, its Neighbors and Region(s) of Privileged Interests
Moderator:
Žarko Petrović, ISAC Fund Consultant for Russia and the CIS

2.

Nikolay Petrov, PhD (In English): On Russia’s internal affairs and on institutions in Russia. The situation at the moment in internal and foreign policy and ways in whcih contemporary Russia functions; Divisions between the Russian elites into „keepers“, who would like to change nothing and „doers“ who would like to change the internal situation in Russia and the strife between the two; Crises Russia faces and, in particular, the economic crisis;

Modest Kolerov, PhD (In Russian with Serbian translation):
On the new world in which Russia is today; On conditions for development of Russia in the time of crisis; passing decisions on foreign policy in Russia; another vision of the division among Russian elites. Contemporary Russian foreign policy and its interests and privileged interests. On the issue of Kosovo and Russia’s view on this issue;

3.

Region(s) of privileged interests

Dušan Reljić, PhD (In Serbian): On region(s) of privileged interests and the Balkans in strategic and geopolitical context, on Russian interest and Russian influence in the Balkans;

Modest Kolerov, (In Russian with Serbian translation): On the concept of the region of privileged interests its origin, its content and on its real grasp. On Serbia and its integrations;

Nikolay Petrov, (In English): On the role of Russia in contemporary international affairs and on the concept of the „privileged interests“ as a foreign policy priority.

Comment: Dragan Vukšić (In Serbian), On the concept and terminology of „privileged interests“.

Response: Modest Kolerov (In Russian with Serbian translation)

4.

Russia and its Neighbors

Yaroslav Pylynskyi (In English): On Russo – Ukrainian relations and relations center-periphery and the influence of such relations to the ordinary people; On Ukrainian independence and internal Ukrainian politics and its connection with foreign policy; On relations between Russian and Ukrainian people; On responsibility for past events and crimes.

Nikolay Petrov, (In English): On relations between Russia and its Neighbors, especially with Ukraine. On the creation of identity by means of opposing Russia, followed by the issue of the recognition of the past.

Modest Kolerov (In Russian with Serbian translation): On contemporary relations between Russia and Ukraine: We need not pro-Russian but pro-Ukrainian Ukraine, On modern European values;

Dušan Reljić, (In Serbian): On consequences of the Cold War for Russia’s relations with the West, inclusion of Russia in the International community through the Balkan issue and failure of this policy and failure of the projection of Russia’s interest in the Balkans, but on the different result in Russia’s neighborhood; Prognosis for the future of Russia – West relations;

Prof Miroslav Jovanović (In Serbian): On relations center – periphery in the former USSR and in the former Yugoslavia;

5.

On Russian and Western Values

Nikolay Petrov, (In English): The question of Western hypocrisy; difference in values between Russia and the West; the issue of Russia’s attractiveness and efficiency of its soft power; the issue of state v. The individual in Russian and in the West;

Modest Kolerov (In Russian with Serbian translation): The categorical opposition to using values as a commodity. There are no Europeans. On basic Russian values;

Comment Dragan Vukšić (In Serbian)
On using values and super nationality and out-of-time context of values;

Second Topic
Russia in the Balkans, Serbia and Russian Interests in the Balkans
Moderator:
Prof. Miroslav Jovanović, PhD

6.

INTRODUCTION

Prof Miroslav Jovanović (In Serbian)
On history of Russian politics in the Balkans; On stereotypical clichés of Russia – Serbia relations; On participation of Russia in resolving turning points in the Balkans;

7.

General Trends of the Russian Policy in the Balkans: Continuity or ad hoc policy

Aleksej Timofejev (In Serbian)
On the image of Russia as a protector of Serbs and stereotypical image of Russia in Serbia; On the division within the Serbian middle class regarding Russia; On phases of Russian foreign policy in the Balkans;

Yaroslav Pylynskyi (In English):
On relations between Serbs and Russians through the Serbian emigration into the „New Serbia“ [today Ukraine]. On other relations between Russians and Serbs through history, especially religious ties;

H.E. Alexandar Konuzin, Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Serbia, (In Russian with Serbian translation)
On Serbia as part of the Russian culture and part of Russian history in the works of Russian artists, writers and the role of Russian volunteers; On the period between the two World Wars in relations between states. On Balkan relations, the radicalism in the Balkans and the conflict potential of some Balkan states. On positive tendencies of the development of the Balkans and on inclusion of the Balkans in European perspective which enhances the potential of the peace in the Balkans; On the positive role of Russia and on the positive example of the Russian – Serbian relations, which lately developed sharply – examples of such developments; On Serbia in the context of Serbia – EU relations; On the future of the Russian presence in the Balkans;

8.

On western discourse, perception and stereotypes of events in the Balkans

Dušan Reljić, (In Serbian):
Of past stereotypes of Serbia and its influence on the Western perception of Serbia. On three basic factors of Russian influence to the contemporary Serbia; Russian UN SC veto privileged. Tradition and contemporary ideology and political inclination to adopt the sovereign democracy model and its conflict with the western model of liberal democracy in Serbia; Economic aspects of the Russian presence in the Balkans. Prognosis for the future;

Dragan Vukšić (In Serbian):
On the „duty“ of Russia to „help“ Serbia; On the abuse of this notion by Serbian i.e. Yugoslav politicians.

Prof. Jovanovića remarks On activities of Milosevic-era leadership in relations with Russia;

Modest Kolerov (In Russian with Serbian translation):
On Russian diplomacy and foreign policy with regards to Serbia in the last 150 years. On the context of events connected to Kosovo and the context of the dissolution of Empires as a historically continuous period. On the relations between Russia and the EU and the perspective of the inter-state relations in the Balkans and their development potential.

On unified Russian policy towards the Balkans or on phases of this policy from 1992 until present-day.

Žarko Petrović (In Serbian)
On the strategic partnership between Russia and Serbia; background and significance of this term. The upcoming choice of Serbia between Russia and the EU.

Comment: Modest Kolerov (In Russian with Serbian translation):

Comment: H.E. Alexandar Konuzin, Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Serbia, (In Russian with Serbian translation)

Nikolay Petrov, (In English):
On the foreign policy as policy with the national consensus in Russia. On positive and negative elements in Russian foreign policy and pro-active and reactive actions of the Russian foreign policy. On four periods of anti-Americanism in Russia’s foreign policy, two of which have been connected to Serbia. Russian position on Kosovo is very pragmatic as well as its position in regards to the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia;

Modest Kolerov (In Russian with Serbian translation):
Concluding Commentary: Russia did not want to recognize the Kosovo precedent, but the West made it. Russia has not intended to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia but Georgia made it. There is no conspiracy within this matter.